Points Programmes
Every perp venue in the opportunity set — including those with no points programme yet — valued off its own revenue, flow and open interest against the multiples comparable launches priced at.
Launch valuationThe FDV each programme is priced at, as a box plot: the box spans the model's p25–p75 estimate and the violet rule inside it is the median — the figure the table quotes. Venues whose token has listed collapse to a single marker, because that FDV is observed and carries no band.
Median estimateModelled · p25–p75 boxActual (token listed)
Value per pointNet airdrop pool divided by points outstanding, after Sybil, vesting and token-probability haircuts. Needs a points total; pre-token venues that publish no airdrop share are priced at the assumed 25% launch share.
Off an actual FDVOff a modelled FDV
4 of 16 programmes priced · 1 at the assumed 25% airdrop share.
Programme Comparison16 of 34 shown · 16 live · 9 no programme yet
| Trade | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Variational | Trade ↗ | Live | $602.75M | $712.88M | 9.56MeEstimated: Our estimate — not published by the venueProjected: 9.45M counted 2026-10-20, plus 107.14K at 150K/week since. | $481.41MModel fair value. p25–p75 range $245.80M – $1.37B. | 32.0%eEstimated: Our estimate — not published by the venue | $117.85M | $12.33 | $38.71-68%Model $/point is -68% below the Polymarket-implied price. | 77%Exact market for Dec 2026. Liquidity $1.24K.Polymarket ↗ | ≥ 77%This venue has no Jun 2027 market. Showing the latest earlier date (Dec 2026) as a lower bound: P(token by Jun 2027) is at least this figure. Liquidity $1.24K.Polymarket ↗ | $1.16BImplied day-1 FDV from Polymarket's 'FDV above X one day after launch' ladder, log-linear where P crosses 50%. Raw prices are joint with launch — the market resolves No if no token ships by the deadline — so the unconditional median is usually below the conditional one. Conditional on launch: $1.51B. Launch deadline Dec 2027. P(launch by deadline) 77%.Polymarket ↗ | 0 / 0 bps | |
 Extended | Trade ↗ | Live | $206.20M | $212.81M | 69.26McConfirmed: Confirmed by the team or on-chainProjected: 69.24M counted 2026-10-06, plus 25.12K at 9.26K/week since. | $249.08MModel fair value. p25–p75 range $122.31M – $547.00M. | 30.0%rRumour: Unverified. Treat with suspicion | $57.16M | $0.8253 | $0.7818+6%Model $/point is +6% above the Polymarket-implied price. | 97%Exact market for Dec 2026. Liquidity $10.65K.Polymarket ↗ | ≥ 97%This venue has no Jun 2027 market. Showing the latest earlier date (Dec 2026) as a lower bound: P(token by Jun 2027) is at least this figure. Liquidity $10.65K.Polymarket ↗ | $228.25M⚠Implied day-1 FDV from Polymarket's 'FDV above X one day after launch' ladder, log-linear where P crosses 50%. Raw prices are joint with launch — the market resolves No if no token ships by the deadline — so the unconditional median is usually below the conditional one. Ladder is not monotonic (P rises as the threshold rises) — flagged, not smoothed. Conditional on launch: $235.95M. Launch deadline Dec 2026. P(launch by deadline) 97%.Polymarket ↗ | 0 / 2.5 bps | |
 Pacifica | Trade ↗ | Live | $123.15M | $436.97M | 627.29MeEstimated: Our estimate — not published by the venueProjected: 213M counted 2026-01-08, plus 414.29M at 10M/week since. | $554.01MModel fair value. p25–p75 range $288.37M – $1.27B. | 25%aNot published. Assumed 25% — the median genesis airdrop across comparable perp-DEX launches (Backpack, Lighter and Paradex 25%, GRVT 28%, edgeX 30%, Hyperliquid 31%). | $105.95M | $0.1689Priced at the assumed 25% airdrop share — the venue has not published one. | $0.02826+498%Model $/point is +498% above the Polymarket-implied price. | 18%Exact market for Dec 2026. Liquidity $1.01K.Polymarket ↗ | ≥ 18%This venue has no Jun 2027 market. Showing the latest earlier date (Dec 2026) as a lower bound: P(token by Jun 2027) is at least this figure. Liquidity $1.01K.Polymarket ↗ | —⚠Implied day-1 FDV from Polymarket's 'FDV above X one day after launch' ladder, log-linear where P crosses 50%. Raw prices are joint with launch — the market resolves No if no token ships by the deadline — so the unconditional median is usually below the conditional one. Ladder is not monotonic (P rises as the threshold rises) — flagged, not smoothed. Conditional on launch: $92.69M. Unconditional: below lowest threshold. Launch deadline Dec 2026. P(launch by deadline) 18%.Polymarket ↗ | 1.5 / 4 bps | |
 ParadexSeason 3 | Trade ↗ | Live | $10.61M | $12.14M | 154.29MeEstimated: Our estimate — not published by the venueProjected: 148M counted 2026-10-14, plus 6.29M at 4M/week since. | $44.02MDIMELive market FDV of DIME, as of 2026-10-23. The token has listed, so this is observed rather than modelled. | 21.6%eEstimated: Our estimate — not published by the venue | $7.27M | $0.04714 | — | 100%Exact market for Dec 2026. Thin book — liquidity below $1,000.Polymarket ↗ | ≥ 100%This venue has no Jun 2027 market. Showing the latest earlier date (Dec 2026) as a lower bound: P(token by Jun 2027) is at least this figure. Thin book — liquidity below $1,000.Polymarket ↗ | $56.57MImplied day-1 FDV from Polymarket's 'FDV above X one day after launch' ladder, log-linear where P crosses 50%. Raw prices are joint with launch — the market resolves No if no token ships by the deadline — so the unconditional median is usually below the conditional one. Conditional on launch: $56.57M. Launch deadline Dec 2026. P(launch by deadline) 100%.Polymarket ↗ | 0 / 0 bps | |
 ArcusSeason 1 | Trade ↗ | Live | $117.92M | $186.71M | — | $104.90MModel fair value. p25–p75 range $53.36M – $316.35M. | 25%aNot published. Assumed 25% — the median genesis airdrop across comparable perp-DEX launches (Backpack, Lighter and Paradex 25%, GRVT 28%, edgeX 30%, Hyperliquid 31%). | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0 / 2.25 bpsBeta pricing (taker fees halved). | |
 Ondo | Trade ↗ | Live | $105.36M | $41.35M | 103.57MeEstimated: Our estimate — not published by the venueProjected: 100M counted 2026-10-20, plus 3.57M at 5M/week since. | $65.25MModel fair value. p25–p75 range $33.66M – $156.16M. | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1.5 / 3.5 bps | |
 RISESeason 1: Ignite | Trade ↗ | Live | $80.66M | $114.16M | — | $132.15MModel fair value. p25–p75 range $67.67M – $301.13M. | 25%aNot published. Assumed 25% — the median genesis airdrop across comparable perp-DEX launches (Backpack, Lighter and Paradex 25%, GRVT 28%, edgeX 30%, Hyperliquid 31%). | — | — | — | 17%Exact market for Dec 2026. Thin book — liquidity below $1,000. Liquidity $771.98.Polymarket ↗ | 35%Exact market for Jun 2027. Thin book — liquidity below $1,000. Liquidity $256.66.Polymarket ↗ | — | 1 / 3 bps | |
 NADOSeason 2 | Trade ↗ | Live | $76.06M | $224.93M | 35.1MeEstimated: Our estimate — not published by the venueProjected: 32.6M counted 2026-09-09, plus 2.5M at 381K/week since. | $269.48MModel fair value. p25–p75 range $137.60M – $611.68M. | — | — | — | — | 17%Exact market for Dec 2026. Liquidity $4.77K.Polymarket ↗ | 73%Exact market for Jun 2027. Thin book — liquidity below $1,000. Liquidity $872.95.Polymarket ↗ | —Implied day-1 FDV from Polymarket's 'FDV above X one day after launch' ladder, log-linear where P crosses 50%. Raw prices are joint with launch — the market resolves No if no token ships by the deadline — so the unconditional median is usually below the conditional one. Conditional on launch: $876.32M. Unconditional: below lowest threshold. Launch deadline Dec 2026. P(launch by deadline) 17%.Polymarket ↗ | 1 / 3.5 bps | |
 GMTrade | Trade ↗ | Live⚠Programme facts last verified 2026-09-09 (46 days ago). | $27.96M | $44.39M | — | $24.90MModel fair value. p25–p75 range $12.67M – $75.14M. | 25%aNot published. Assumed 25% — the median genesis airdrop across comparable perp-DEX launches (Backpack, Lighter and Paradex 25%, GRVT 28%, edgeX 30%, Hyperliquid 31%). | — | — | — | — | — | — | — / 2 bpsOracle pool: 2–2.4 bps per side on crypto, stocks and commodities; 1–1.2 bps on FX. | |
 BULKSeason 1 | Trade ↗ | Live⚠Programme facts last verified 2026-09-09 (46 days ago). | $7.61M | $22.37M | — | $32.23MModel fair value. p25–p75 range $16.88M – $74.58M. | 30.0%rRumour: Unverified. Treat with suspicion | — | — | — | 9%Exact market for Dec 2026. Liquidity $1.02K.Polymarket ↗ | 36%Exact market for Jun 2027. Liquidity $1.24K.Polymarket ↗ | — | 2 / 3.5 bps | |
 Reya | Trade ↗ | Live⚠Programme facts last verified 2026-09-09 (46 days ago). | $3.44M | $132.85M | — | $149.99MModel fair value. p25–p75 range $77.93M – $347.81M. | 45.0%rRumour: Unverified. Treat with suspicion | — | — | — | 12%Exact market for Dec 2026. Liquidity $2.13K.Polymarket ↗ | 52%Exact market for Jun 2027. Thin book — liquidity below $1,000. Liquidity $310.00.Polymarket ↗ | —⚠Implied day-1 FDV from Polymarket's 'FDV above X one day after launch' ladder, log-linear where P crosses 50%. Raw prices are joint with launch — the market resolves No if no token ships by the deadline — so the unconditional median is usually below the conditional one. Ladder is not monotonic (P rises as the threshold rises) — flagged, not smoothed. Conditional on launch: $395.91M. Unconditional: below lowest threshold. Launch deadline Dec 2026. P(launch by deadline) 12%.Polymarket ↗ | 1 / 4 bps | |
 PerplSeason One | Trade ↗ | Live⚠Programme facts last verified 2026-09-09 (46 days ago). | $1.42M | $12.63M | — | $24.93MModel fair value. p25–p75 range $13.08M – $56.48M. | 25%aNot published. Assumed 25% — the median genesis airdrop across comparable perp-DEX launches (Backpack, Lighter and Paradex 25%, GRVT 28%, edgeX 30%, Hyperliquid 31%). | — | — | — | 11%Exact market for Dec 2026. Thin book — liquidity below $1,000. Liquidity $837.17.Polymarket ↗ | 36%Exact market for Jun 2027. Thin book — liquidity below $1,000. Liquidity $590.76.Polymarket ↗ | — | 0.9 / 6.9 bps | |
 HibachiPlayoffs (Postseason) | Trade ↗ | Live | $1.39M | $10.70M | — | $13.74MModel fair value. p25–p75 range $6.92M – $30.66M. | 25%aNot published. Assumed 25% — the median genesis airdrop across comparable perp-DEX launches (Backpack, Lighter and Paradex 25%, GRVT 28%, edgeX 30%, Hyperliquid 31%). | — | — | — | 42%Exact market for Dec 2026. Liquidity $1.06K.Polymarket ↗ | ≤ 74%This venue has no Jun 2027 market. Showing the next later date (Dec 2027) as an upper bound: P(token by Jun 2027) is at most this figure. Thin book — liquidity below $1,000. Liquidity $693.92.Polymarket ↗ | — | 0 / 4.5 bps | |
 KatanaSeason 1: The Forge | Trade ↗ | Live | $632.39K | $44.15M | — | $56.23MModel fair value. p25–p75 range $29.45M – $131.80M. | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1 / 4 bps | |
 Hotstuff | Trade ↗ | Live⚠Marked live, but its end date (2026-09-30) has passed — ended, extended or a new season, pending re-verification. | $0.000 | $0.000 | 16.83MeEstimated: Our estimate — not published by the venueProjected: 5.9M counted 2026-04-30, plus 10.93M at 500K/week since. | — | 25%aNot published. Assumed 25% — the median genesis airdrop across comparable perp-DEX launches (Backpack, Lighter and Paradex 25%, GRVT 28%, edgeX 30%, Hyperliquid 31%). | — | — | $0.5909 | 15%Exact market for Dec 2026. Liquidity $1.16K.Polymarket ↗ | 26%Exact market for Jun 2027. Thin book — liquidity below $1,000. Liquidity $400.02.Polymarket ↗ | —Implied day-1 FDV from Polymarket's 'FDV above X one day after launch' ladder, log-linear where P crosses 50%. Raw prices are joint with launch — the market resolves No if no token ships by the deadline — so the unconditional median is usually below the conditional one. Conditional on launch: $52.00M. Unconditional: below lowest threshold. Launch deadline Dec 2027. P(launch by deadline) 50%.Polymarket ↗ | -0.2 / 2.5 bps | |
 EtherealSeason One | Trade ↗ | Live | — | — | — | $6.53MModel fair value. p25–p75 range $2.71M – $11.18M. | 25%aNot published. Assumed 25% — the median genesis airdrop across comparable perp-DEX launches (Backpack, Lighter and Paradex 25%, GRVT 28%, edgeX 30%, Hyperliquid 31%). | — | — | — | 13%Exact market for Dec 2026. Liquidity $1.27K.Polymarket ↗ | 52%Exact market for Jun 2027. Thin book — liquidity below $1,000. Liquidity $695.32.Polymarket ↗ | —⚠Implied day-1 FDV from Polymarket's 'FDV above X one day after launch' ladder, log-linear where P crosses 50%. Raw prices are joint with launch — the market resolves No if no token ships by the deadline — so the unconditional median is usually below the conditional one. Ladder is not monotonic (P rises as the threshold rises) — flagged, not smoothed. Conditional on launch: $91.17M. Unconditional: below lowest threshold. Launch deadline Dec 2027. P(launch by deadline) 50%.Polymarket ↗ | 0 / 3 bps |
How this is calculated
Where a venue's token has already listed, its FDV is read off the market and marked actual — no model can beat a printed price, and every number on that row is priced off it. Everywhere else, fair-value FDV is a weighted blend of four comparable multiples — annualised revenue, annualised volume, open interest and TVL — each applied to the venue's own metric. Factors with no data drop out and their weight moves to the survivors, so a venue without a TVL listing is not scored as worthless. Value per point is then the airdrop pool divided by points outstanding, after haircuts for Sybil clawback, vesting and the chance no token ships at all.
The multiples are fitted from past perp DEX launches on the comparables page, so the model recalibrates as new tokens list. Open any venue for its calculator, sensitivity heatmap and the factor-by-factor breakdown.
Points have no official value until a token launches, conversion ratios are set by each team at distribution time, and programmes may never convert at all. OTC quotes are anonymous and unverifiable. Nothing here is financial advice.