Time series of the Hidden Markov Model's posterior probability for the current regime. High = model confident; low (near 0.33 for 3 states) = uncertainty or transition.
basispoint.xyz
Component Signals
History (daily)
VRP Pctile 1Y — BTC
Percentile rank of the BTC volatility risk premium within its 12-month history. Above 80th (red) = options historically very expensive; below 20th (green) = cheap vol.
Not enough data to chart
Vol Shock Z — BTC (HMM Input)
One of the three primary HMM input features. Z-score of vol-of-vol shock intensity. Spikes drive the model toward the risk_off state.
Not enough data to chart
Funding Z 90d — BTC (HMM Input)
One of the three primary HMM input features. Z-score of BTC perpetual funding vs 90-day history. Extreme positive = crowded leveraged longs, raising risk_off probability.
Weighted sum of the three HMM input features: vol_z + funding_z − liq_z. Positive = elevated stress (risk-off pressure); negative = benign conditions (risk-on). Zero = neutral.
basispoint.xyz
Liquidity Z (Volume 180d) — BTC (HMM Input)
Third primary HMM input feature. Z-score of BTC volume vs 180-day history. Below-average liquidity raises regime uncertainty; combined with high funding/vol, tips toward risk_off.